Thursday, January 29, 2009

Chi Cubs beat the odds

The Cubs have not won the world series in 100 years.

0 world series 100 years.

I believe that there are 30 teams in the league.

If you do a simple Binomial Distribution on 100 trials each with a 1/30 chance of success, you have a higher statistical chance of coming up with 1,2,3,4,5 and 6 successes over those 100 trials. Just by dumb, random luck, it would be easier for the Cubs to have won 6 world series (6.7%) championships than 0 (3.4%) in the past 100 years.

And, of course, there have not been 30 teams for most of that time. I do not want to go through the effort to calculate the actual odds, but winning 0 times in 100 years is even harder than my simple little calculation.

Don't worry, Cub Fans. By my calculation, it is nearly statistically impossible (odds are only about 1 in 1000) for the Cubs to make it to 2108 without winning one.

Of course, if any team can do it, it is the Cubs.

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